Kamala Harris or Donald Trump - who will lead the US in the next four years? - 05.11.2024

• More than 239 million American citizens choose their president today • Voting for the president is exercised indirectly, through the representatives (electors) of each American state • Polls conducted in recent days show equality between the two candidates regarding the citizens' voting preferences • To win the presidential, a minimum of 270 voters are needed out of the 538 in the USA

More than 239 million eligible American citizens are expected at the polls today to choose the next president of the United States. The presidential election in the United States represents a crucial moment in American politics, given the current political context and the importance of this election for the future of the country.

The main candidates this year are Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice president in the Biden Administration, from the Democratic Party and Donald Trump, the former president of the United States from 20 January 2017 to 20 January 2021, the candidate of the Republican Party. While Trump announced his candidacy in November 2022 and clinched the Republican nomination in July 2024, Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024 following calls from several leaders markers of that party and after Biden gave clear signs during a televised debate with Donald Trump that he could not continue that race.

As for the main candidates, recent American polls point to a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. A poll conducted by Siena College and published at the end of October shows that both candidates have 48% of voters' voting intentions. In a six-candidate scenario, Trump leads 47 percent to Harris' 46 percent. The numbers show a significant divide along gender and education lines, with men and non-college-educated voters leaning toward Trump, while women and college-educated voters support Harris. Swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election. In Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac poll conducted in October shows Trump leading 47 percent to Harris' 46 percent, highlighting significant racial and gender divides. Another notable aspect is the increase in support for Trump among African-American voters. An Atlas Intel poll shows Trump has up to 39.9 percent support among black voters in Michigan, suggesting a possible weakening of the traditional Democratic coalition.

That's why both candidates have ramped up their campaign efforts in recent weeks. Trump held rallies in key states, including a major event at Madison Square Garden in New York, and planned visits to Atlanta, Georgia. Kamala Harris campaigned in Michigan and was endorsed by former President Barack Obama in Philadelphia. Political analysts offer different perspectives on the outcome of the election. Nate Silver, a pollster, told CNN that while the data suggests a close race, "his intuition is that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election." On the other hand, Professor Allan Lichtman, known for the accuracy of his election predictions, remains confident that Harris will win, based on his "Keys to the White House" model.

A July 2024 Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that about 75 percent of American adults believe the 2024 election will determine the fate of American democracy. This perception underscores the profound significance of the election for the country's political future.

We note that in the USA the president is not elected by direct vote of the citizens, but by an indirect system based on the Electoral College. Each state has a specific number of electors, corresponding to the total number of representatives it has in Congress (senators and members of the House of Representatives). In total, the Electoral College comprises 538 electors, and to win the presidency, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority, meaning at least 270 electoral votes. Most states use the winner-take-all system, where the candidate with the most popular votes in the state wins all of that state's electors. There are exceptions, however, such as Maine and Nebraska, which use a proportional system of allocating electors.

What is certain is that today's US presidential election is one of the closest in recent history, with polls showing an almost perfect balance between the two leading candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Swing states are essential and will play a decisive role, having the ability to influence the winner. Changes in demographic preferences of the electorates, including Trump's unusually high support among African-American voters, could be unexpected factors in the final outcome. Although analysts offer different perspectives (some believe in Trump's victory, others in Harris's success), the Electoral College model and the specifics of each state leave room for great uncertainty. Thus, voter mobilization in critical states and electoral behavior will be decisive to designate the future president of the United States.

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• A single nationwide exit poll

Edison Research, an election data collection firm that has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool since 2003, is the company that will also conduct exit polls for this year's presidential elections nationwide , according to NBC News. The source said the National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of media networks - ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC News - pooling resources for a collective vote count and exit poll operation. NBC News independently analyzes and reports exit poll results.

In today's US presidential election, interviewers will be present at 600 polling stations across the US, each following local rules about where they can stand in relation to the polling place. The interview is self-administered, i.e. the respondent completes the questionnaire himself. The nationwide exit poll will include approximately 20,000 interviews in total, conducted with people who show up at polling stations, people who voted early and people who voted by mail. For exit polls in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, there will be samples of 1,500 to 2,500 respondents per state. NEP participants do not report any exit poll results before 5:00 p.m. ET (Eastern Daylight Time) (11:00 p.m. in Romania) on Election Day, and no exit poll results that may indicate the outcome of a race are reported until after all polls are scheduled to close in a state. As election night unfolds and on-site pollsters request more exit poll results, the data is updated and re-weighed in real time.

In addition to a national exit poll that captures voters across the country, there are exit polls specifically for states that are critical to winning the presidency or include important runoff races such as the Senate or governor. For example, in today's presidential election, NBC News will have exit poll coverage in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, each at 40 polling stations in each state.